The headline number in QSR net lease is boring, and that's the story. Average cap rates for quick-service restaurant properties are holding around 5.68% heading into 2026 — essentially a plateau after two years of adjustment to higher interest rates. Underneath that flat average, though, the market is sorting itself hard.

Blue-chip tenants keep getting more expensive: McDonald's ground leases now trade below a 4% cap, In-N-Out around 3.25%, with Chick-fil-A and Raising Cane's in the mid-to-high 4s. Meanwhile, weaker or operationally challenged brands have drifted above 6%, and franchisee-guaranteed deals have widened to about 6.8% against 5.8% for corporate-backed leases. The spread between premium and secondary is the widest it's been in years.

The tenant on your dirt sets the value of your dirt.

Why a landowner should care about any of this

Cap rates are how investors price the income stream a property produces once a tenant is in place. You may never sell a net lease deal yourself — but the buyer knocking on your door is pricing your land off the deal they can build on it. Three practical takeaways:

  • Quality dirt is scarcer than capital. A flat-cap-rate, wide-spread market means money is chasing a small set of well-located sites with strong tenants. If your corner supports one of those tenants, you're holding the scarce half of the trade.
  • The end tenant matters more than the current building. An empty building leased to nobody and the same parcel positioned for a national drive-thru brand are two entirely different values. Ask any buyer what use they're underwriting.
  • An unpriced corner can beat a listed one. Off-market deals let a buyer pay for certainty and speed instead of an auction premium — which is why serious site buyers write letters, and why a written offer with the math shown is worth reading even if you'd never call a broker.

The honest caveat

A widening quality spread cuts both ways. If a site only pencils for secondary tenants, the same math that lifts prime corners caps what anyone can responsibly pay for it. When we pass on a property, this is usually why — and we'd rather explain that math than send a number we can't stand behind.